Bull

USA

• U.S. economy is relatively self-sustaining, driven largely by domestic demand
• High-value service exports — finance, software, and healthcare — remain globally competitive
• Strong internal consumption provides resilience against external trade shocks.
• Limited dependence on exports helps cushion the impact of global disruptions.

CHINA

• Beijing is proactively diversifying trade beyond the U.S. market.
• Strengthening ties with Europe, where Chinese EVs and batteries are gaining traction.
• Expanding relationships with Russia, India, and Southeast Asia to sustain export growth.
• New trade alliances could offset the decline in U.S. demand over time.

Bear

USA

• Rising national debt threatens long-term economic stability.
• The U.S. dollar’s global dominance could weaken as debt and inflation rise.
• Growing investor skepticism may reduce confidence in U.S. financial markets.
• If global trade shifts to alternative currencies, Washington’s leverage through financial sanctions could erode.

CHINA

• Losing access to the U.S. market would immediately impact export volumes.
• Supply chain disruptions could ripple through Chinese manufacturing hubs.
• Reduced exports may temporarily raise unemployment in key industrial regions.
• Lower industrial output could strain already-stressed local government revenues.

Bull

• Leading lidar technology at competitive price points
• Rapidly growing revenue with positive net income
• Strong traction from top global automakers
• Tailwinds from self-driving adoption
• Ability to scale manufacturing efficiently
• Attractive cost structure for OEM adoption
• Expanding opportunities in robotics
• No debt or warrant overhang, unlike many peers

Bear

• FMCW lidar could eventually outperform Hesai’s time-of-flight lidar
  Competition
• U.S. blacklisting could limit adoption in defense-related applications
• Ongoing concerns over alleged use of Hesai lidar in Chinese military systems

Bull

• 30+ years of silicon design and production experience
• Successful pivot into AI workloads
• Strong leadership under CEO Fermi Wang, PhD
• High employee satisfaction and retention

Bear

• Fierce competition from Hailo, Qualcomm, and others in edge AI
• NVIDIA’s dominance in autonomous driving and robotics could crowd Ambarella out
• Negative net income and relatively higher P/E

Bull

• World-class engineering velocity and a track record of shipping difficult hardware/software.
• Category leadership in U.S. EVs; growing energy storage.
• Musk effect: Recruiting magnet, capital access, and attention gravity.
• Option value in robotaxi and humanoid robotics that, if realized, could dwarf today’s auto profits.

Bear

• Rich multiple (near-200x earnings) leaves little room for disappointment. Macrotrends
• Execution risk in autonomy and robotics; timelines have slipped before. Wikipedia
• Competitive pressure from China (BYD’s scale and pace) and legacy OEMs compressing auto margins. Business Insider
• Key-person risk / headline risk tied to the CEO.
• Dilution optics if large pay packages or capital needs resurface.